| Abstrakt: |
An earthquake early warning system (EEWS) can provide valuable alerts before the destructive seismic waves arrive. This warning time can allow the adoption of protective measures by the population, which can translate into reduced casualties and economic savings. In the last centuries, Portugal was struck by several strong earthquakes (e.g., 1755 M ~ 8.5 Lisbon, 1969 M7.8 Algarve), whose magnitude and epicentre might allow large warning times. In this study, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model was used to generate a large stochastic event set for mainland Portugal, and the expected human impact (i.e., fatalities and injured) were estimated for each seismic event with and without the consideration of an EEWS. We evaluated different options for the reduction in the casualties considering the duration of the warning time, human reaction time, and the size of the buildings. The potential reduction in the human impact was converted into an economic benefit considering hospitalization costs and the statistical value of a human life in Portugal. The results indicate that such a system could significantly reduce the human and related economic losses in the Southwest of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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