| Abstrakt: |
The first confirmed detection of COVID-19 was in December, 2019 with symptomatic fever, cough, chest pain, bilateral pneumonia, and acute respiratory distress syndrome [1]. It was observed among the RT-PCR tested patients in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Later due to community transmission worldwide, COVID-19 was designated as a global pandemic by the WHO in February, 2020. This virus builds mutation as it transmits forming variants of concern. The first appeared Alpha variant popped up in the United Kingdom in September 2020. While in India, Delta variant is spreading rapidly for which the developed vaccines could offer protection against serious hospitalization. [2] There has been numerous researches to build a measurable (statistical/ machine learning) model which can possibly predict the course of this pandemic to some extent. Time-Series forecasting is a widely deployed method adopted in studying breeding of pathogens, their resultant infections and possible epidemics. The Schalekamp et al[3], 2020 developed a risk model to forecast deaths using clinical reports. The Malki et al.,2020 [4] research formed a machine learning model using weather elements to evaluate transmission. In other parts of the scientific community, Hao, Xu, Hu, Wang generated a model [5] using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Elman Neural Network. Ji et al., 2020[6] presented papers which generated powerful estimation techniques by means of Multivariate COX Regression. Nonetheless, the modified model built using susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SIER) and Runge-Kutta methods is appraised to be remarkable.[7] All of these evaluate the effectiveness of policies and guidelines of a country. The objective is to detect such trends in COVID-19 cases, deaths and vaccinations and further analyze them using publicly available dataset distributed by Our World in Data [8] where each regional data is collected, merged and uploaded in comma-separated value (CSV) file. This dataset covers figures reported by governments and ministries of health from countries around the world from December 13, 2020 to the present day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
