| Abstrakt: |
Aims: The necessity of transitioning from personal transportation patterns to public transportation, regardless of the economic and social benefits of public transportation, is the existence of environmental sustainability in public transportation systems. However, this type of sustainability in Tehran metropolis has been less studied with a view to the future. In fact, future research as an interdisciplinary knowledge provides tools to achieve sustainability in public transportation systems. Therefore, the present study has evaluated the future state of the public transportation system of Tehran metropolis from the point of view of compatibility with the environment. Methodology: This study is of the "survey" type based on the opinion of experts and has been implemented through the "explanatory-evaluation" path. The study period is 1400 and its time horizon is 1410. The participants in the research included 12 qualified experts in "future research" and "transportation and urban traffic" subjects, who were selected in a targeted manner. Data analysis was done using "theme analysis", "mean comparison" and "scenario" methods. Results: The results of the analysis of the interviews showed a total of 41 drivers affecting the future of the public transportation system in Tehran, 8 of which were identified as key drivers. Then, by defining three favorable, static and critical situations for each of the key drivers, 11 scenarios were obtained, of which 6 scenarios have a higher probability of occurrence and higher credibility for Tehran metropolis. However, scenario number 2, which is the continuation of the current trend of the system, was recognized as the most likely scenario for the next 10 years in Tehran, and its characteristics and consequences were explained. Conclusion: The process of realizing environmental sustainability in the future of the public transportation system of Tehran metropolis is dependent on investment and financing for the development of new technologies and environmental standards, and the success of all these measures depends on accurate planning and policy making at the level of the metropolitan area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
