| Autor: |
Khairudin, Zuraida, Amit, Norani, Rafee, Aimi Najihah Muhd, Hadi, Az'lina Abdul, Razali, Nornadiah Mohd |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
AIP Conference Proceedings; 2023, Vol. 2720 Issue 1, p1-9, 9p |
| Abstrakt: |
Government debt is a flow variable that equals the difference between government receipts and expenditures in a single year, whereas government expenditure is related with multiplier effects that could potentially contribute to output increases for economic systems. When the government expenditure exceeds its revenue, a budget deficit will occur. If Malaysian government finances a budget deficit through borrowing, the Malaysian economy will be unable to generate significant and long-term economic growth. Higher deficits and debt will increase employment rate, consumption, expenditure, and eventually economic growth if they are correctly measured. Hence, it is important to choose the best model that can forecast the future value of debt and expenditure. Therefore, the main goal of this study was to identify the pattern of data and to evaluate the best model for estimating the future value of debt guaranteed and spending of the Federal Government of Malaysia in 2019. The debt and expenditure data were obtained from Bank Negara Malaysia for the year 2013 to 2018. In overall, the guaranteed debt had been increasing over time, while the government expenditure fluctuated over time and had seasonal behavior. The Granger causality test showed that government debt caused the future performance of expenditure. The results also suggested that double exponential smoothing was the most suitable model in forecasting debt guaranteed of the federal government. Meanwhile, the best model suggested to forecast federal government's expenditure by was SARIMA model due to the presence of the seasonality effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
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