| Abstrakt: |
Chinese president Xi Jinping has a strategic window, in the 2030 timeframe, when favorable conditions exist to forcefully annex Taiwan if peaceful unification is not achieved before then. This hypothesis is based upon the fact that an emboldened China intends to fulfill its imperial--and geostrategic--objectives through expansionist behavior against Taiwan. The three main factors examined are (1) President Xi's "cult of personality" as a totalitarian leader to support the why of the invasion timeline, (2) the People's Liberation Army (PLA) defense modernization as an enabling planning factor, and (3) Chinese demographics against the backdrop of domestic election cycles and President Xi's life expectancy. These three factors offer a strategic harbinger that, if President Xi continues to pursue annexation of Taiwan, the PLA will be prepared by 2027, and he will likely take steps to realize these ambitions by 2030 as China's population ages, while pursuing unification to solidify his historic legacy in his lifetime. This article will begin with an overview of the current geopolitical tensions, provide an explanation for the fundamental factors contributing to President Xi's window of opportunity, and conclude by providing an integrated assessment of relevant global security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
