Higher Frozen Soil Permeability Represented in a Hydrological Model Improves Spring Streamflow Prediction From River Basin to Continental Scales.

Autor: Agnihotri, Jetal, Behrangi, Ali, Tavakoly, Ahmad, Geheran, Matthew, Farmani, Mohammad A., Niu, Guo‐Yue
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Zdroj: Water Resources Research; Apr2023, Vol. 59 Issue 4, p1-25, 25p
Abstrakt: Despite plentiful evidence of frozen ground effects on snowmelt infiltration from lab experiments at pedon scales, streamflow observations show a weaker or no effect in terms of timing and magnitude at larger scales. We aim to understand this conflicting phenomenon through modeling using the Noah land surface model with multi‐physics (MP; Noah‐MP) options and the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) over the Mississippi River Basin. We conduct 16 experiments with combinations of two supercooled liquid water (SLW) parameterization schemes and four soil hydraulic property schemes in Noah‐MP driven by two gridded precipitation products of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and the Integrated Multi‐satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Final. We then use RAPID to route Noah‐MP modeled surface runoff and groundwater discharge to predict daily streamflow at 52 United States Geological Survey gauges from 2015 to 2019. A model with the highest permeability performs better than other schemes on daily streamflow predictions by 20%–57% throughout a water year and 29%–113% for the spring as measured by the mean Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of the 52 gauges. Different SLW schemes demonstrate negligible effects on streamflow predictions. Models forced by IMERG show a better prediction skill compared with those forced by NLDAS at most of the gauges. Both precipitation products confirm that a scheme of higher permeability yields more accurate streamflow predictions over frozen ground. Future models should represent preferential flows through macropore networks to improve the understanding of frozen soil effects on infiltration and discharge across scales. Plain Language Summary: Frozen ground presumably affects the discharge of snowmelt water into rivers during winter and spring due to the apparent effects of ice "blockage." The presence of ice in the soil affects the release of soil liquid water and the time to release the water to local streams and rivers through the effects of soil ice on water flow and capacity to hold snowmelt water. At present, it is not fully understood how the soil ice affects the soil's capability of holding and releasing liquid water to rivers at river‐basin to continental scales. We use a computer model to test competing hypotheses through combinations of optional schemes of water holding capacity and water flow. The modeling results over major sub‐basins in the Mississippi River show that a model with higher permeable frozen soil results in higher skill in streamflow predictions at river basin scales. This study highlights the need to represent water flow through macropores that may be formed due to ice expansion during freezing/thawing cycles. Key Points: Streamflow predictions are substantially sensitive to the choice of frozen soil hydraulic property parameterizationsIrrespective of precipitation product used, a scheme of higher frozen soil permeability yields more skillful streamflow predictionsStreamflow prediction improvement with a scheme of higher frozen soil permeability is pronounced in basins dominated by frozen ground [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze: Complementary Index
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