| Abstrakt: |
Debris-generating events in orbit pose a significant threat to all space-faring activities. In order to mitigate such events, it is essential to uncover their causes. This paper examines the fragmentations of three Atlas V Centaur upper stages (2009-047B, 2014-55B, 2018-079B) which occured in 2018 and 2019. Three different data sources—data from the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), the Vimpel catalog, and the Spacetrack catalog—are used for this investigation and the outcomes are compared. Ephemerides and two-line elements (TLEs) from these sources are first propagated to obtain breakup epoch estimates. Subsequently, techniques developed by Tan and Reynolds to obtain Gabbard plots, velocity and angular distributions of fragments, and event intensities, are applied. This work finds that these events stray from existing fragmentation models and patterns exhibited by past events, such as those of the explosive Delta upper stages in the 1970s. Only one of the three events, 2018-079B, may have exploded due to leftover propellant combustion. 2009-047B appears to have endured a structural failure—inferred from clustered fragments with low velocities. A torus-shaped fragment distribution is observed for the 2014-055B event, suggesting it may have been pierced by a small piece of debris. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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