What Makes Discretionary Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy so Difficult? An Analysis of 32 OECD Countries.

Autor: Haan, Jakob de, Gootjes, Bram
Předmět:
Zdroj: CESifo Economic Studies; Mar2023, Vol. 69 Issue 1, p1-20, 20p
Abstrakt: We examine the stance of fiscal policy for 32 OECD countries from 1986 to 2023 by comparing for each country-year observation the signs of the output gap and the change in the cyclically adjusted budget balance. We find that fiscal policies are often pro-cyclical. We test possible explanations using comparative statistics for country-year observations with pro- and counter-cyclical policies. Our evidence suggests that fiscal rules and institutional quality are not related to the prevalence of pro-cyclicality. Likewise, several political-economy arguments suggested for explaining pro-cyclical fiscal policies do not receive strong support. However, poor access to finance makes fiscal policies more pro-cyclical. (JEL codes: E62, H50, and H62) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze: Complementary Index