| Abstrakt: |
Introduction: Wheat is one of the most important products used in the country and forms the basis of Iranian food security. Wheat cultivation in Iran has a long history over 8,000 years. On the other hand, with the growth of the country's population, the issue of food security has become more important every day to the point where it has become one of the most important issues of the country, and efforts are being made to achieve selfsufficiency in the production of this strategic crop. Also, the area under cultivation has always been one of the main factors limiting production in the world, and today in all countries, officials and researchers are trying to achieve more production without relying on increasing the area under cultivation. The history of compression of cultivation and the consequences of green revolution in the form of conventional agriculture show that the way to supply crop production is not through this, inevitably the importance of studying the agricultural history of each country becomes more important every day which by analyzing events find the reason for the success or failure of programs over time. Material and methods: A study was conducted in the form of time series and quantitative trends in order to analyze and investigate changes in cultivated area, wheat production and population changes in a 60-year period (1961-2020). The required data were extracted from the Iranian Statistics Center, the Information and Communication Technology Center of the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad, and the FAO statistical database. The data related to the country's demographic changes were obtained from the country's population statistics center and compared with the FAO data. The data of this period were analyzed in the form of ten-year averages using Excel 2007 and Minitab 17.1.0 software. The trend of changes in cultivated area, wheat yield and production was investigated using linear time series analysis. Results and discussion: The research results show the linear growth of the population from 1961 to 2020. In the same period, the country's total wheat production has increased from 3.5 million tons to 11.7 million tons, which shows a growth of 234% in this sector. The area under wheat cultivation in these years has changed less compared to the production and population growth and has reached from 4.5 million hectares in 1961 to 6.4 million hectares in 2020, which shows a growth of 42.22%. Also, in the context of population growth, the ratio of this variable has increased from 22.113 million people with an increase of 279.76 percent to a population equivalent to 83.977 million people. According to the results, it can be seen that the events of 1961 to 1970 in the social structure and industrialization of the country, the developments between the two revolutions of 1971 to 1980, the occurrence of the imposed war in 1981 to 1990 are all of special importance in the change of Iran's agriculture. Conclusion: In the analysis of the observed trends regarding the amount of wheat production and cultivated area as well as the demographic changes of Iran in this 60-year period, the concept of social metabolism phenomenon can be used, which reflects the effects that the natural environment (agriculture ecosystem) received from its social environment. And on the other hand, it exposes the effects that changes in the structure and functioning of agricultural ecosystems have on the access to food in the society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
