| Autor: |
Zghurska, Oksana, Somkina, Tetiana, Korchynska, Olena, Shparyk, Khrystyna, Fomishyna, Vira, Ohorodnyk, Ruslan, Kucherenko, Inna |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Journal of Hygienic Engineering & Design; 2022, Vol. 41, p422-432, 11p |
| Abstrakt: |
The methodological study presented in this paper is based on the relevance of modeling the effective management of dynamic processes of militaryeconomic cooperation of foreign countries in order to further development and implementation of measures to eliminate threats for national economic security in today's globalization conditions. The purpose of the study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic processes of military goods export, based on the methods of mathematical management theory and effective management of dynamic processes of military and economic cooperation of foreign states. The study was conducted on the basis of analytical data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Military Expenditure Database on the present issue. The study used generally accepted, timetested special methods of research: construction of a system of linear differential equations with constant delay - in order to obtain analytical dependences of the intensity of interstate military conflicts on the system of national economic security from a certain time period; construction of a mathematical model of fluctuations - in order to develop an algorithm for identifying the level of protection of the national economic security system in order to effectively manage interstate conflicts, depending on the level of their duration and intensity; regression analysis - in order to build approximating functions of the dynamics of military goods exports in the US and in Ukraine, as well as to obtain analytical dependences to determine the relationship of offset policies of these two countries according to phase trajectories to determine areas of stability of effective military and economic cooperation. The methodology was developed for building an economic and mathematical model of effective regulation of dynamic processes for military and economic cooperation of foreign countries, based on improved methods of managing the impact of interstate conflicts on the national economic security system, which, in contrast to existing ones, takes into account the period of delay of the system's response to the conflict, the probability of risk situations, and allows to synthesize the function of analyzing the level of security of the economic security system to make optimal management decisions to combat interstate conflicts. The paper suggests an economic and mathematical model of effective management of dynamic processes of military and economic cooperation of foreign states (on the example of Ukraine and the United States), analytical dependences of the intensity of interstate military conflicts on the system of national economic security based on systems of differential equations with initial conditions that take into account the behavior of the system over a period of time. The proposed dependences allow to build the laws of distribution of probability of losses during interstate conflicts within the system of national economic security. It was determined that during the studied period from 1998 to 2020 the level of military goods (MG) imports from the US increased, and the level of MG exports in Ukraine stabilized, which, in turn, led to increased macroeconomic indicators, and this had a positive impact on general economic development. Along with that, considering the average value of exports per year for the corresponding period, the dynamics of exports to Ukraine reveals more positive growth, in contrast to the volume of imports from the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
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