| Abstrakt: |
We have studied the upper air RSRW data of 00 UTC during the pre-monsoon season, i.e. March–May of 2016–2018 for 6 capital cities viz. Kolkata, Bhubaneswar, Guwahati, Patna, Ranchi in the Eastern part of India and one island station, Port Blair. We have analyzed thermodynamic stability indices to identify the indices which have been most suitable for the prediction of thunderstorm events for each location. Based on the consensus of suitable indices and considering the spatial variation, we have proposed a scheme for predicting whether there would be any thunderstorm at a particular location within 24 hours. Verification has been carried out for 2019–2020 depending on availability of data and the performance of the proposed scheme has been compared with existing latest operational methods in India. We find that the proposed scheme can predict thunderstorms with reasonable accuracy and has better performance, mostly than that of existing operational methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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