| Autor: |
Pérez Bello, Alexis, Mailhot, Alain, Paquin, Dominique, Paquin‐Ricard, Danahé |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres; 11/27/2022, Vol. 127 Issue 22, p1-13, 13p |
| Abstrakt: |
The intensity of extreme rainfall is expected to increase in a future climate at a rate close to 7%/°C estimated from the Clausius‐Clapeyron (CC) relationship, which represents the rate of change of the atmospheric water holding capacity with temperature. Previous studies using fixed‐interval extremes (e.g., hourly or daily) have shown that extreme rainfall can also respond to temperature increases at a rate larger than the CC scaling (super CC scaling). Temperature‐precipitation scaling rates (TPSR) were estimated through an event‐based analysis for the Northeastern North American (NNA) region, using a 50‐member large ensemble of climate simulations over the 1956–2099 period. Rainfall events (REs), in which 1‐hr annual maximums (AMs) are embedded, were analyzed. Results show that the TPSR of the RE peak intensity is determined by the duration of the RE in which they are embedded. Rainfall event duration, indicative of rainfall types (large‐scale or convective), therefore plays an essential role and should be considered when estimating the TPSR. Super CC scaling observed for 1‐hr AM in southern regions of the domain was explained by a change in the dominant rainfall type. This study also confirms previously reported results that the more extreme 1‐hr AM will be part of a shorter and probably more convective dominant RE in a future climate. Plain Language Summary: In a future climate, the extreme rainfall events are expected to be around 7% more intense for each Celsius‐degree temperature increment, based on a thermodynamic relationship described by the Clausius‐Clapeyron (CC) equation. Although this value can be used as a guide for many applications, numerous studies have found values higher than the one defined by this relation. This work addressed the link between Rainfall event (RE) and temperature through an event‐based analysis. A duration‐based classification of the extreme REs simulated by 50‐member climate simulations was used. The study area covers the Northeastern North American region and the study period goes from 1956 to 2099. It was shown that the peak value and the total rainfall depth of the REs respond differently to temperature. The duration of a RE is crucial and should be taken into consideration for future temperature‐precipitation scaling rate analysis. Values above the CC relation were observed in the southern regions for most of the ranges of rainfall durations analyzed. It was also found that in a future climate, the more extreme 1‐hr Annual Maximums will be embedded in shorter and likely more convective dominant REs, confirming previous studies. Key Points: Temperature‐precipitation scaling of 1‐hr annual maxima and total rainfall depth of the associated Rainfall event (RE) was investigatedRainfall type (stratiform or convective) of the RE plays a crucial role and should be considered in the scaling estimationSuper Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling observed in the southern regions is explained by a change in the rainfall type with increasing temperature [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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