A comparison between the GM model (1,1) and the GVM model (1,1) to predict the levels of the annual production of wheat in Iraq.

Autor: Naji, Ali Abdul Karim Kazem, Ashoor, Asmaa Shaker
Předmět:
Zdroj: AIP Conference Proceedings; 2022, Vol. 2394 Issue 1, p1-10, 10p
Abstrakt: Systems theories generally describe most systems are grey because in case that there is an uncertain principle in describing its information such as equations or other properties that are incomplete or insufficient. The gray GM (1,1) model and the GVM model (1,1) (The Grey Verhulst models) were used to predict the annual production levels of wheat crops in Iraq, where the data used was a sample size of 18 annual observations from 2003 to 2020 with a procedure of making comparison between results and predicting value to the levels of the annual for the coming years (2021-2024) according to the prediction criteria. The preferred model for prediction was the GM (1,1) model according to the Mean Absolute Percentage error value (MAPE), the Root Mean Square Error value (RMSE), and the Fitted Degree value (FD). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze: Complementary Index