| Autor: |
Keizer, Iris, Le Bars, Dewi, de Valk, Cees, Jüling, André, van de Wal, Roderik, Drijfhout, Sybren |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Ocean Science Discussions; 10/4/2022, p1-21, 21p |
| Abstrakt: |
While a global acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) during the 20th century is now established, locally acceleration is more difficult to detect because additional processes play a role which sometimes mask the acceleration. Here we study the rate of SLR along the coast of the Netherlands from six tide gauge records, covering the period 1890-2000. We focus on the influence of the wind field and the nodal tide variations on the local sea-level trend. We use four generalised additive models, including different predictive variables, and a parametric bootstrap method to compute the sea-level trend. From the sea-level trend, we obtain the continuous evolution of the rate of SLR and its uncertainty over the observational period through differentiation. Accounting for the nodal cycle only or both the nodal cycle and the wind influence on sea level reduces the standard error in the estimation of the rate of SLR. Moreover, accounting for both the nodal and wind influence changes the estimated rate of SLR, unmasking an acceleration of SLR that started in the 1960s. Our best-fitting statistical model yields a rate of SLR of about 1.8 [1.4-2.3] mm/yr in 1900-1919 and 1.5 [1.1-1.8] mm/yr in 1940-1959 compared to 3.0 [2.4-3.5] mm/yr over 2000-2019. If, apart from tidal, wind effects and fluctuations, sea level would have increased at a constant rate, then the probability (the p-value) of finding a rate difference between 1940-1959 and 2000-2019 of at least our estimate is smaller than 1 %. Our findings can be interpreted as an unequivocal sign of the acceleration of current SLR along the Dutch coast since the 1960s. This aligns with global SLR observations and expectations based on a physical understanding of SLR related to global warming. A small but significant part of the long-term sea-level trend is due to wind forcing related to a strengthening and northward shift of the jet stream. Additionally, we detect a multidecadal mode of sea-level variability forced by the wind with an amplitude of around 1 cm. We argue that it is related to multi-decadal sea surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic, similar to the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
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