| Abstrakt: |
The article is devoted to the analysis of the current trend – an unusually rapid increase in housing prices throughout Russia in 2020 and in the first half of 2021. The article begins in a brief history of the formation of the housing market in modern Russia, starting with the specific "housing policy" pursued by the authorities of the USSR, and ending with the balance of payments crisis in 1998. The authors substantiate the point of view that it is the devaluation effect and the favorable change in the terms of trade for Russia that created the prerequisites for the formation of a full-fledged housing market. The authors consider the dynamics of real incomes of the population, the degree of competition in the banking sector, and the elasticity of housing supply to be specific factors operating in the Russian housing market. Based on the analysis of data on the dynamics of housing prices in the XXI century, the efficiency of several popular hypotheses regarding the set of factors affecting this dynamics is tested. The authors propose to divide the history of the modern housing market into two periods. A distinctive feature of the first period is the inflating of the" bubble " in the housing market. In the second period, the housing market was in a cooling state. According to the authors, in each of these periods, different combinations of factors that determine the price of housing were at work. In the first period, the main factor determining the price of housing was the investment demand for housing and "self-fulfilling expectations". It was they who led to the inflating of the real estate bubble. In the second period, when the bubble deflated, prices became more determined by the traditional demand for housing as a source of housing services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
