| Autor: |
Keeling, Matt J., Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J., Hill, Edward M., Moore, Samuel |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Nature Communications; 8/22/2022, Vol. 13 Issue 1, p1-19, 19p |
| Abstrakt: |
Control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic in England has relied on a combination of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Some of these NPIs are extremely costly (economically and socially), so it was important to relax these promptly without overwhelming already burdened health services. The eventual policy was a Roadmap of four relaxation steps throughout 2021, taking England from lock-down to the cessation of all restrictions on social interaction. In a series of six Roadmap documents generated throughout 2021, models assessed the potential risk of each relaxation step. Here we show that the model projections generated a reliable estimation of medium-term hospital admission trends, with the data points up to September 2021 generally lying within our 95% prediction intervals. The greatest uncertainties in the modelled scenarios came from vaccine efficacy estimates against novel variants, and from assumptions about human behaviour in the face of changing restrictions and risk. The 'Roadmap' for relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in England in 2021 was informed by mathematical modelling. Here, the authors perform a retrospective assessment of the accuracy of modelling predictions and identify the main sources of uncertainty that led to observed values deviating from projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
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