| Autor: |
Supharatid, Seree, Aribarg, Thannob, Nafung, Jirawat |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Theoretical & Applied Climatology; Jan2022, Vol. 147 Issue 1/2, p669-690, 22p, 3 Charts, 5 Graphs, 5 Maps |
| Abstrakt: |
In this article, we employ statistical bias-correction to examine the changing climate of the latest 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over Southeast Asia under the medium-emission (SSP2-4.5) and high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The "Variance scaling" and "Empirical quantile mapping" methods are used for temperature and precipitation, respectively. The bias-corrected dataset was evaluated against the observations obtained from inter-comparison among several observation grid datasets. Significant improvements are found over most areas in SEA, except the Maritime Continent such as high topography of Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and east Papua islands. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean (MME) projects a warming (wetting) 1.99–4.29 °C (9.62–18.43%) in the twenty-first century. The model performance in simulating precipitation is generally lower than in simulating temperature. The MME model displays larger rainfall increases during the boreal summer rather than boreal winter. Overall, there are robust increases in Southwest Monsoon (14.54–19.69%), and Northeast Monsoon (1.68–6.61%) rainfall throughout the twenty-first century with larger values is found under SSP5-8.5 than SSP2-4.5. The climate stabilization is shown to flatten the curve of temperature and precipitation under SSP2-4.5 later in the century. All these findings can be an input for policymakers to develop adaptation strategies in response to the projected climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
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