Development of a prototype real‐time sting‐jet precursor tool for forecasters.

Autor: Gray, Suzanne L., Martínez‐Alvarado, Oscar, Ackerley, Duncan, Suri, Dan
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Zdroj: Weather (00431656); Nov2021, Vol. 76 Issue 11, p369-373, 5p
Abstrakt: Satellite-derived winds (from the Advanced Scatterometer, ASCAT, on the EUMETSAT METOP satellite, not shown) are consistent with the model forecast, with surface winds exceeding 55kn (~28ms SP -1 sp ) directly south of the cyclone centre in the swath available from a few hours prior to the time shown in I Figure i 4; however, the CCB and SJ cannot be distinguished in these observations. Sting jets in European windstorms can cause damaging winds and gusts, but the resolution of global ensemble prediction systems is too coarse to represent them. Strong surface winds in extratropical cyclones typically arise from the two synoptic-scale low-level wind jets associated with the so-called warm conveyor belt (WCB) that ascends ahead of the cold front, and the cold conveyor belt (CCB) that wraps rearwards around the cyclone ( I Figure i 1). About a third of North Atlantic cyclones from ERA-I were found to have the precursor (indicating that sting jets are likely to have occurred in these cyclones) with a higher proportion for explosively deepening cyclones (Martínez-Alvarado I et al i ., 2012; Hart I et al i ., 2017). [Extracted from the article]
Databáze: Complementary Index