| Autor: |
Lang, Simon T. K., Lock, Sarah-Jane, Leutbecher, Martin, Bechtold, Peter, Forbes, Richard M. |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society; 1/15/2021, Vol. 174 Issue 735, p1364-1381, 18p |
| Abstrakt: |
The Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisations scheme (SPP) represents modeluncertainty in numerical weather prediction by introducing stochastic per-turbations into the physical parametrisation schemes. The perturbations areconstructedinsuchawaythattheinternalconsistencyofthephysicalparametri-sation schemes is preserved. We developed a revised version of SPP for the Inte-grated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-Range WeatherForecasts (ECMWF). The revised version introduces perturbations to additionalquantities and modifies the probability distributions sampled by the scheme.Medium-range ensemble forecasts with the revised SPP are considerably moreskilful than ensemble forecasts with the original implementation of SPP. Therevised version of SPP is similar, in terms of forecast skill, to the StochasticallyPerturbed Parametrisation Tendency scheme (SPPT), which is currently used torepresent model uncertainty in the operational ECMWF ensemble forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
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