A forward Markov model for predicting bicycle speed.

Autor: Arnesen, Petter, Malmin, Olav Kåre, Dahl, Erlend
Předmět:
Zdroj: Transportation; Oct2020, Vol. 47 Issue 5, p2415-2437, 23p, 1 Diagram, 6 Charts, 5 Graphs, 2 Maps
Abstrakt: Speed prediction of different transport modes is important in applications such as route planning, transport modelling and energy calculations. In this paper we model bicycle speed as a function of slope and horizontal curvature. We developed two models, one with dependence between subsequent observations (a forward Markov model) and one without such a dependence (a generalised linear model). We show through prediction on out-of-sample data that the model including dependence between observations outperforms the model without. To estimate and evaluate our models we use a data set collected using a smart phone application. The data collected includes different sources of error, and therefore we introduce various filtering methods to make the data more appropriate for statistical analysis and model estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze: Complementary Index