| Abstrakt: |
Climate change is having important effects on forest ecosystems, presenting a challenge for natural resource professionals to reduce climate-associated impacts while still achieving diverse management objectives. Regional projections of climate change and forest response are becoming more readily available, but managers are still searching for practical ways to apply this information. We propose that commonly collected forest inventory data be used in conjunction with species distribution models to better understand the potential response of forests to climate change and inform management at the site level. In this article, we propose a new climate risk metric that incorporates stand-level forest inventory data with projections of tree species habitat from the Climate Change Tree Atlas. This climate risk metric can serve as a starting point for managers to consider how forests may be altered by climate change. We also describe two examples of how this metric was used in real-world management situations. Management and Policy Implications The forests of today, and the ecosystem services they provide, will continue to undergo changes as a result of direct (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and indirect (e.g., pests and pathogens) effects of climate change. Forest and natural resource managers are increasingly looking for actions that enhance forest resilience and improve the ability of forests to adapt. By integrating climate change information into existing forest inventory data sets and protocols, managers will be better able to make science-based decisions regarding possible interventions for climate change adaptation. The combined consideration of management goals, landscape context, site conditions, and climate change vulnerability under different scenarios of climate change will help identify opportunities to suit a range of management needs. These opportunities could range widely depending on management goals and constraints, such as protecting species through climate refugia, promoting diversity to reduce risk, or facilitating changes in species composition via corridor promotion or assisted migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
