| Autor: |
Di Giuseppe, Francesca, Vitolo, Claudia, Krzeminski, Blazej, San-Miguel, Jesús |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences Discussions; 2/14/2020, p1-18, 18p |
| Abstrakt: |
In the framework of the EU Copernicus program, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) on behalf of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is forecasting daily fire weather indices using its medium range ensemble prediction system. The use of weather forecast in place of local observations can extend early warnings up to 1–2 weeks allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries. Using one year of pre-operational service in 2017 and the fire weather index (FWI) here we assess the capability of the system globally and analyze in detail three major events in Chile, Portugal and California. The analysis shows that the skill provided by the ensemble forecast system extends to more than 10 days when compared to the use of mean climate making a case of extending the forecast range to the sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale. However accurate FWI prediction does not translate into accuracy in the forecast of fire activity globally. Indeed when all 2017 detected fires are considered, including agricultural and human induced burning, high FWI values only occurs in 50 % of the cases and only in Boreal regions. Nevertheless for very important events mostly driven by weather condition, FWI forecast provides advance warning that could be instrumental in setting up management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
