| Autor: |
Milne, Alice E., Gottwald, Tim, Parnell, Stephen R., Alonso Chavez, Vasthi, van den Bosch, Frank |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
PLoS Computational Biology; 2/6/2020, Vol. 16 Issue 2, p1-20, 20p, 2 Diagrams, 2 Charts, 7 Graphs |
| Abstrakt: |
Diseases in humans, animals and plants remain an important challenge in our society. Effective control of invasive pathogens often requires coordinated concerted action of a large group of stakeholders. Both epidemiological and human behavioural factors influence the outcome of a disease control campaign. In mathematical models that are frequently used to guide such campaigns, human behaviour is often ill-represented, if at all. Existing models of human, animal and plant disease that do incorporate participation or compliance are often driven by pay-offs or direct observations of the disease state. It is however very well known that opinion is an important driving factor of human decision making. Here we consider the case study of Citrus Huanglongbing disease (HLB), which is an acute bacterial disease that threatens the sustainability of citrus production across the world. We show how by coupling an epidemiological model of this invasive disease with an opinion dynamics model we are able to answer the question: What makes or breaks the effectiveness of a disease control campaign? Frequent contact between stakeholders and advisors is shown to increase the probability of successful control. More surprisingly, we show that informing stakeholders about the effectiveness of control methods is of much greater importance than prematurely increasing their perceptions of the risk of infection. We discuss the overarching consequences of this finding and the effect on human as well as plant disease epidemics. Author summary: The successful regional control of emerging and invasive diseases often requires that a sufficiently large proportion of the population comply with the control strategy. This is notably the case in diseases such as measles but also applies to epidemics in animals and plants. If insufficient numbers of stakeholders comply with disease control, or if control becomes uncoordinated for some reason, then control fails. Therefore, both epidemiological and human behavioural factors influence the outcome of emerging, endemic, and invasive disease control campaigns. Mathematical models are often used to determine factors that are important for disease control to be successful, but these models tend to focus on the epidemiology and efficacy of control, frequently neglecting human behaviour. A number of mathematical models of human disease, and to some extent animal disease do incorporate participation or compliance behaviours; however, studies looking at human actions and attitudes towards plant disease control are quite rare and almost exclusively driven by pay-offs or direct observations of the disease state. It is however very well known that opinion, for example about how effective control is perceived to be, is also a key driving factor of human decision making. Here we consider the case study of Citrus Huanglongbing disease (HLB), a devastating invasive disease in citrus which threatens production worldwide. We show how by coupling an epidemiological model with an opinion dynamics model it is possible to answer the question: What makes or breaks the effectiveness of a disease control campaign? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
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