| Autor: |
Ngoma, Justine, Braakhekke, Maarten C., Kruijt, Bart, Moors, Eddy, Supit, Iwan, Speer, James H., Vinya, Royd, Leemans, Rik |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Biogeosciences Discussions; 2018, p1-23, 23p |
| Abstrakt: |
Understanding climate change effects on forests is important considering the role forests play in mitigating climate change. We studied the effects of changes in temperature, rainfall, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, solar radiation, and number of wet days (as a measure of rainfall intensity) on net primary productivity (NPP) of the Zambian Zambezi teak forests along a rainfall gradient. Using 1960-1989 as base-line, we projected changes in NPP for the end of the 21st century (2070-2099). We adapted the parameters of the dynamic vegetation model, LPJ-GUESS, to simulate the growth of Zambian forests at three sites along a moisture gradient receiving annual rainfall of between 700 mm to more than 1000 mm. The thus adjusted plant functional type was tested against measured data. We forced the model with contemporary climate data (1960-2005) and with climatic forecasts of an ensemble of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) following RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We used local soil parameter values to characterize texture and measured local tree parameter values for maximum crown area, wood density, leaf longevity, and allometry. While increased CO2 concentration enhances NPP at the wetter Kabompo and the intermediate Namwala sites, NPP decreases at the drier Sesheke site under both scenarios by the end of 21st century. The projected decreased NPP under RCP8.5 at the Sesheke site results from the reduced rainfall. We thus demonstrated that differences in rainfall pattern influence the way in which climate change will affect forests resources. We also showed that using local parameter values is essential to obtaining reasonably reliable simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
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