| Abstrakt: |
Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. In 2015, Indonesia got the second rank of TB new case in the world. The TB transmission can be represented by a susceptible infected recovered (SIR) model. The disease can be prevented by the vaccination of Bacillus Calmette-Geurin (BCG). This vaccine has efficacy of 0-80%. This indicates that this prevention does not provide total protection so it is possible that the individual becomes susceptible to TB infection. In addition, TB patients who have recovered may be relapse. In this article, we constructed SIR model with vaccination, immunity loss, and relapse. The model was applied in Indonesia based on data from 2004 to 2015 which was obtained from Index Mundi, Data and Information Center, and WHO. Based on model solutions, the number of TB patients tends to decline year by year. In 2030, the number of TB patients decreased by 87.52% compared to 2004. However, the target of SDGs to end the TB epidemic by 2030 has not been reached yet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
