Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States.

Autor: Kehoe, Timothy J., Ruhl, Kim J., Steinberg, Joseph B.
Předmět:
Zdroj: Journal of Political Economy; Apr2018, Vol. 126 Issue 2, p961-796, 36p
Abstrakt: Since the early 1990s, as the United States borrowed heavily from the rest of the world, employment in the US goods-producing sector has fallen. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with several mechanisms that could generate declining goods-sector employment: foreign borrowing, nonhomothetic preferences, and differential productivity growth across sectors. We find that only 15.1 percent of the decline in goods-sector employment from 1992 to 2012 stems from US trade deficits; most of the decline is due to differential productivity growth. As the United States repays its debt, its trade balance will reverse, but goods-sector employment will continue to fall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze: Complementary Index