| Autor: |
Chowell G, Torre CA, Munayco-Escate C, Suárez-Ognio L, López-Cruz R, Hyman JM, Castillo-Chavez C, Chowell, G, Torre, C A, Munayco-Escate, C, Suárez-Ognio, L, López-Cruz, R, Hyman, J M, Castillo-Chavez, C |
| Zdroj: |
Epidemiology & Infection; Dec2008, Vol. 136 Issue 12, p1667-1677, 11p |
| Abstrakt: |
SUMMARYThe weekly number of dengue cases in Peru, South America, stratified by province for the period 1994-2006 were analysed in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data. Estimates of the reproduction number, moderately correlated with population size (Spearman rho=0.28, P=0.03), had a median of 1.76 (IQR 0.83-4.46). The distributions of dengue attack rates and epidemic durations follow power-law (Pareto) distributions (coefficient of determination >85%, P<0.004). Spatial heterogeneity of attack rates was highest in coastal areas followed by mountain and jungle areas. Our findings suggest a hierarchy of transmission events during the large 2000-2001 epidemic from large to small population areas when serotypes DEN-3 and DEN-4 were first identified (Spearman rho=-0.43, P=0.03). The need for spatial and temporal dengue epidemic data with a high degree of resolution not only increases our understanding of the dynamics of dengue but will also generate new hypotheses and provide a platform for testing innovative control policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
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