Global burden of tuberculous meningitis in children aged 0-14 years in 2019: a mathematical modelling study.

Autor:	du Preez K; Desmond Tutu Tuberculosis Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa. Electronic address: karendp@sun.ac.za., Jenkins HE; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA., Martinez L; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA., Chiang SS; Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Alpert Medical School, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA; Center for International Health Research, Rhode Island Hospital, Providence, RI, USA., Dlamini SS; Research, Information Monitoring, Evaluation, and Surveillance of the National Tuberculosis Management Cluster, Department of Health, Pretoria, South Africa., Dolynska M; Infection Control in Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine., Aleksandrin A; Infection Control in Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine., Kobe J; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA., Graham SM; Department of Paediatrics and Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Hesseling AC; Desmond Tutu Tuberculosis Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa., Starke JR; Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA., Seddon JA; Desmond Tutu Tuberculosis Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa; Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK., Dodd PJ; Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	The Lancet. Global health [Lancet Glob Health] 2025 Jan; Vol. 13 (1), pp. e59-e68.
DOI:	10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00383-8
Abstrakt:	Background: Tuberculous meningitis is fatal if untreated and can lead to lifelong neurological sequelae. However, to our knowledge, there are no data on the number of children affected by this disease. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden and attributable mortality of childhood tuberculous meningitis by WHO regions, age groups, treatment status, and HIV status in 2019. Methods: We developed a Bayesian mathematical model to estimate the number of children aged 0-14 years who developed tuberculous meningitis, died from tuberculous meningitis, and did not die from tuberculous meningitis but had neurological sequelae in 2019. We reviewed the literature and used meta-analyses to quantify key parameters used as model inputs: risk of tuberculous meningitis after Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, tuberculous meningitis as a proportion of tuberculosis notification data (ie, routine surveillance data that countries report to WHO), and risk ratios for tuberculous-meningitis mortality by age group. We identified routine tuberculosis surveillance data from countries and literature that reported the proportion of notified childhood tuberculosis that was due to tuberculous meningitis. Country-level data were from Brazil; the USA; Ukraine; South Africa; and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, which included 29 countries but was aggregated and considered as one site. We assumed tuberculosis notification was synonymous with detection and treatment, combined age-disaggregated risk ratios and published meta-analytic estimates of the case-fatality rate in children who received treatment to produce estimates of tuberculous-meningitis mortality by age group and HIV status, and assumed that untreated tuberculous meningitis was always fatal. We assumed similar age-disaggregated risk ratios for neurological sequelae among children who had treatment for tuberculous meningitis and lived as for children who died. Findings: An estimated 24 000 (95% credible interval 22 300-25 700) children younger than 15 years developed tuberculous meningitis in 2019. Of these children, 13 000 (12 100-13 900) were estimated to have been diagnosed and treated for tuberculous meningitis. Most untreated children were younger than 5 years. Among the 24 000 children with tuberculous meningitis, 16 100 (14 900-17 300) were estimated to have died in 2019, of whom 1101 (6·8%) had HIV. 13 380 (83·1%) of 16 100 deaths were estimated to be in children younger than 5 years and 11 000 (68·3%) were estimated to be in children who did not receive tuberculous-meningitis treatment. Of the 7900 (5800-10 000) children who did not die, 5550 (5110-5980) were estimated to have neurological sequelae. Interpretation: Our estimates of tuberculous meningitis in children younger than 15 years showed substantial mortality and morbidity. Improved diagnostics and strong health-care systems to facilitate early diagnosis are crucial to improve outcomes, and tuberculosis prevention should be a public health priority. Funding: Fogarty International Center of the US National Institutes of Health. Competing Interests: Declaration of interests KdP received a career development award (K43) from the US National Institutes of Health. ACH is supported by a South African National Research Foundation chair in paediatric tuberculosis. PJD was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MR/W029227/1). JK was supported by the US National Institutes of Health (award number R03AI164123). All other authors declare no competing interests. (Copyright © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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