Reassessing the winner-loser gap in satisfaction with democracy.

Autor: Daoust JF; School of Applied Politics, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada.; School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom., Nemčok M; Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway., Broniecki P; Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway., Loewen PJ; Department of Government, College of Arts and Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, United States of America.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PloS one [PLoS One] 2024 Dec 17; Vol. 19 (12), pp. e0314967. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Dec 17 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0314967
Abstrakt: Citizens who support a party which enters government are systematically more satisfied with democracy compared to voters who supported a party which ends up in the opposition. This relationship is labelled as the "winner-loser gap," but we lack firm causal evidence of this gap. We provide a causal estimate of the effects of voting for a winning or losing party by leveraging data from surveys fielded before and after new government formations in three well established democracies (Netherlands, Norway and Iceland) were announced in contexts of very high uncertainty. Using a regression discontinuity design comparing citizens' levels of satisfaction with democracy just before and just after their electoral status (winner or loser) was revealed, we find that the impact of winning or losing is undistinguishable from zero. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: © 2024 Daoust et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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