Analysis of effects of meteorological variables on dengue incidence in Bangladesh using VAR and Granger causality approach.

Autor:	Hossain MJ; Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh., Sultana N; Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh., Das A; Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh., Jui FN; Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh., Islam MK; Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh., Rahman MM; Department of Mathematics, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Tangail, Bangladesh., Rahman MM; School of Business, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, Australia.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Frontiers in public health [Front Public Health] 2024 Nov 28; Vol. 12, pp. 1488742. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Nov 28 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI:	10.3389/fpubh.2024.1488742
Abstrakt:	Background: Dengue fever is a serious public health issue in Bangladesh, where its incidence rises with the monsoon. Meteorological variables are believed to be responsible factors among others. Therefore, this study examines the effects of meteorological variables (temperature, rainfall, and humidity) on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. While previous studies have examined the relationship between dengue and meteorological variables using single model approaches, this study employs advanced econometric techniques to capture dynamic interactions. Furthermore, in the case of Bangladesh, this type of analysis is necessary due to the fact that dengue outbreak become one of the major issues. However, the analysis related to this issue is not available. Methods: For estimation purposes, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Granger causality tests, Impulse Response Function (IRF), Variance Decomposition (VDC), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are employed. Results: Rainfall has a significant impact on dengue incidence compared to temperature and humidity. The Granger causality test demonstrates that rainfall and dengue incidence are causally related unidirectionally. Rainfall can potentially have a short-term and long-term effect on the incidence of dengue, as per the estimates of the VECM model. Conclusions: These findings will assist policymakers in Bangladesh in developing a dengue fever early warning system depending on climate change. In order to efficiently avoid the spread of dengue in Bangladesh's dengue-endemic urban areas, this study suggests societal monitoring. Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. (Copyright © 2024 Hossain, Sultana, Das, Jui, Islam, Rahman and Rahman.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
Externí odkaz:	Zobrazit plný text záznamu