Association between precipitation events, drought, and animal operations with Salmonella infections in the Southwest US, 2009-2021.

Autor:	Austhof E; Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, 1295 N. Martin Ave, PO Box 245163, Tucson, AZ 85724, United States of America., Pogreba-Brown K; Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, 1295 N. Martin Ave, PO Box 245163, Tucson, AZ 85724, United States of America., White AE; Department of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health, 13001 E 17th Pl B119, Aurora, CO 80045, United States of America., Jervis RH; Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, 4300 Cherry Creek Drive, South Denver, CO 80246, United States of America., Weiss J; Arizona Department of Health Services, Infectious Disease Control, 150N 18th Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85007, United States of America., Davis SS; The University of New Mexico, Emerging Infections Program, Office of Community Health, 1601 Randolph Rd SE, Ste. 1100S, Albuquerque, NM 87106, United States of America., Moore D; Utah Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Communicable Diseases, 288N 1460W, Salt Lake City, Utah 84116, United States of America., Brown HE; Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, 1295 N. Martin Ave, PO Box 245163, Tucson, AZ 85724, United States of America.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) [One Health] 2024 Nov 19; Vol. 19, pp. 100941. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Nov 19 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI:	10.1016/j.onehlt.2024.100941
Abstrakt:	Background: Temperature and precipitation have previously been associated with Salmonella infections. The association between salmonellosis and precipitation might be explained by antecedent drought conditions; however, few studies have explored this effect. Methods: Using an ecological study design with public health surveillance, meteorological (total precipitation [inches], temperature [average °F], Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI, category]), and livestock data we explored the association between precipitation and Salmonella infections reported in 127/141 counties from 2009 to 2021 in the Southwest, US and determined how this association was modified by antecedent drought. To explore the acute effect of precipitation on Salmonella infections we used negative binomial generalized estimating equations adjusted for temperature with a 2-week lag resulting in Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR). Stratified analyses were used to explore the effect of antecedent drought and type of animal density on this association. Results: A one inch increase in precipitation was associated with a 2 % increase in Salmonella infections reported two weeks later (IRR: 1.02, 95 % CI: 1.00, 1.04) after adjusting for average temperature and PDSI. Precipitation following moderate (IRR: 1.22, 95 % CI: 1.17, 1.28) and severe drought (IRR: 1.16, 95 % CI: 1.10, 1.22) was associated with a significant increase in cases, whereas in the most extreme drought conditions, cases were significantly decreased (IRR: 0.89, 95 % CI: 0.85, 0.94). Overall, more precipitation (above a 30-year normal, the 95th and 99th percentiles) were associated with greater increases in cases, with the highest increase following moderate and severe drought. Counties with a higher density of chicken and beef cattle were significantly associated with increased cases regardless of drought status, whereas dairy cattle, and cattle including calves had mixed results. Discussion: Our study suggests precipitation following prior dry conditions is associated with an increase in salmonellosis in the Southwest, US. Public health is likely to see an increase in salmonellosis with extreme precipitation events, especially in counties with a high density of chicken and beef cattle. Competing Interests: None. (© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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