How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination.

Autor: Shankar M; Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK. m.shankar@imperial.ac.uk., Hartner AM; Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.; Centre for Artificial Intelligence in Public Health Research, Robert Koch Institute, Wildau, Germany., Arnold CRK; Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, 16802, PA, USA., Gayawan E; Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria., Kang H; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Kim JH; Department of Epidemiology, Public Health, Impact, International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, South Korea., Gilani GN; Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK., Cori A; Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK., Fu H; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Jit M; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.; School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China., Muloiwa R; Department of Paediatrics & Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa., Portnoy A; Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, United States.; Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States., Trotter C; Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.; Department of Veterinary Medicine and Pathology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK., Gaythorpe KAM; Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: BMC infectious diseases [BMC Infect Dis] 2024 Dec 01; Vol. 24 (1), pp. 1371. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Dec 01.
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-024-10243-0
Abstrakt: Mathematical models are established tools to assist in outbreak response. They help characterise complex patterns in disease spread, simulate control options to assist public health authorities in decision-making, and longer-term operational and financial planning. In the context of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), vaccines are one of the most-cost effective outbreak response interventions, with the potential to avert significant morbidity and mortality through timely delivery. Models can contribute to the design of vaccine response by investigating the importance of timeliness, identifying high-risk areas, prioritising the use of limited vaccine supply, highlighting surveillance gaps and reporting, and determining the short- and long-term benefits. In this review, we examine how models have been used to inform vaccine response for 10 VPDs, and provide additional insights into the challenges of outbreak response modelling, such as data gaps, key vaccine-specific considerations, and communication between modellers and stakeholders. We illustrate that while models are key to policy-oriented outbreak vaccine response, they can only be as good as the surveillance data that inform them.
Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: Not applicable. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: KAMG reports speaker fees from Sanofi Pasteur outside the submitted work. All other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare. MS, A-MH, EG, HK, J-HK, HF, MJ, AP , CLT, and KAMG received funding from Gavi, BMGF and/or the Wellcome Trust via VIMC during the course of the study.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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