Dynamics and ecology of a multi-stage expansion of Oropouche virus in Brazil.

Autor:	Tegally H; Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa., Dellicour S; Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.; Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.; Interuniversity Institute of Bioinformatics in Brussels, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium., Poongavanan J; Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa., Mavian C; Emerging Pathogens Institute, Department of Pathology, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA.; Global Health Program Smithsonian's National Zoo & Conservation Biology Institute, DC, USA.; Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., Dor G; Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa., Fonseca V; Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa.; Department of Exact and Earth Science, University of the State of Bahia, Salvador 41192-010, Brazil.; Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Minas Gerais, Brazil., Tagliamonte MS; Interdisciplinary Center for Biotechnology Research, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA., Dunaiski M; Computer Science Division, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa., Moir M; Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa., Wilkinson E; Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa., de Albuquerque CFC; Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde/Organização Mundial da Saúde, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil., Frutuoso LCV; Coordenadora-Geral de Vigilância de Arboviroses, Brazilian Ministry of Health, Brazil., Holmes EC; School of Medical Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Baxter C; Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa., Lessells R; KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), Nelson R Mandela School of Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4001, South Africa., Kraemer MUG; Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, UK.; Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford,UK., Lourenço J; BioISI (Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute), University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.; Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Católica Medical School, Católica Biomedical Research Center, Lisboa, Portugal., Alcantara LCJ; Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Minas Gerais, Brazil., de Oliveira T; Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa.; KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), Nelson R Mandela School of Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4001, South Africa., Giovanetti M; Department of Sciences and Technologies for Sustainable Development and One Health, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, Italy.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	MedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences [medRxiv] 2024 Oct 30. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Oct 30.
DOI:	10.1101/2024.10.29.24316328
Abstrakt:	In March 2024, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) issued an alert in response to a rapid increase in Oropouche fever cases across South America. Brazil has been particularly affected, reporting a novel reassortant lineage of the Oropouche virus (OROV) and expansion to previously non-endemic areas beyond the Amazon Basin. Utilising phylogeographic approaches, we reveal a multi-scale expansion process with both short and long-distance dispersal events, and diffusion velocities in line with human-mediated jumps. We identify forest cover, banana and cocoa cultivation, temperature, and human population density as key environmental factors associated with OROV range expansion. Using ecological niche modelling, we show that OROV circulated in areas of enhanced ecological suitability immediately preceding its explosive epidemic expansion in the Amazon. This likely resulted from the virus being introduced into simultaneously densely populated and environmentally favourable regions in the Amazon, such as Manaus, leading to an amplified epidemic and spread beyond the Amazon. Our study provides valuable insights into the dispersal and ecological dynamics of OROV, highlighting the role of human mobility in colonisation of new areas, and raising concern over high viral suitability along the Brazilian coast. Competing Interests: Competing interests: We declare no conflict of interest.
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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