Further perceptions of probability: Accurate, stepwise updating is contingent on prior information about the task and the response mode.

Autor: Forsgren M; Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 1225, 751 42, Uppsala, Sweden. mattias.forsgren@psyk.uu.se., Juslin P; Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 1225, 751 42, Uppsala, Sweden., van den Berg R; Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 1225, 751 42, Uppsala, Sweden.; Department of Psychology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Psychonomic bulletin & review [Psychon Bull Rev] 2024 Nov 14. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Nov 14.
DOI: 10.3758/s13423-024-02604-2
Abstrakt: To adapt to an uncertain world, humans must learn event probabilities. These probabilities may be stationary, such as that of rolling a 6 on a die, or changing over time, like the probability of rainfall over the year. Research on how people estimate and track changing probabilities has recently reopened an old epistemological issue. A small, mostly recent literature finds that people accurately track the probability and change their estimates only occasionally, resulting in staircase-shaped response patterns. This has been taken as evidence that people entertain beliefs about unknown, distal states of the world, which are tested against observations to produce discrete shifts between hypotheses. That idea stands in contrast to the claim that people learn by continuously updating associations between observed events. The purpose of this article is to investigate the generality and robustness of the accurate, staircase-shaped pattern. In two experiments, we find that the response pattern is contingent on the response mode and prior information about the generative process. Participants exist on continua of accuracy and staircase-ness and we only reproduce previous results when changing estimates is effortful and prior information is provided-the specific conditions of previous experiments. We conclude that explaining this solely through either hypotheses or associations is untenable. A complete theory of probability estimation requires the interaction of three components: (i) online tracking of observed data, (ii) beliefs about the unobserved "generative process," and (iii) a response updating process. Participants' overt estimates depend on how the specific task conditions jointly determine all three.
Competing Interests: Declarations Conflict of interest We have no conflicts of interest to disclose. Ethics approval Participants gave informed consent and were aware that they could terminate participation at any time. All data are anonymous, and no sensitive personal data were collected. The study involved no physical intervention on participants or biological material being taken from the participants. The participants were neither physically nor psychologically manipulated, and there was no risk of harming the participants physically or psychologically. According to the Swedish act concerning the Ethical Review of Research involving humans (2003:460), application for ethics approval is required if any of the above considerations are not fulfilled. Since these considerations were fulfilled, blanket ethics approval applied to this study. The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki. Consent to participate All participants in this research gave informed consent before starting the experiment. Consent for publication Not applicable. Open practices statement All data, materials, and analysis code are available at https://osf.io/zhv2r/. This study was not preregistered.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
Externí odkaz: