Brazil nut journey under future climate change in Amazon.

Autor: Anjos LJS; Faculdade de Meteorologia, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará-UFPA, Belém, Pará, Brazil.; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Ambientais, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará-UFPA, Belém, Pará, Brazil., Gonçalves GSR; Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação e Macroecologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal do Pará-UFPA, Belém, Pará, Brazil., Dutra VAB; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Ambientais, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará-UFPA, Belém, Pará, Brazil., Rosa AG; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Ambientais, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará-UFPA, Belém, Pará, Brazil., Santos LB; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Ambientais, Universidade do Estado do Pará-UEPA, Belém, Pará, Brazil., Barros MNR; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Ambientais, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará-UFPA, Belém, Pará, Brazil., de Souza EB; Faculdade de Meteorologia, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará-UFPA, Belém, Pará, Brazil.; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Ambientais, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará-UFPA, Belém, Pará, Brazil., de Toledo PM; Divisão de Impactos, Adaptação e Vulnerabilidade, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais-INPE, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PloS one [PLoS One] 2024 Nov 13; Vol. 19 (11), pp. e0312308. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Nov 13 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0312308
Abstrakt: Climate change is among the principal threats to global terrestrial biodiversity, especially to megadiverse ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest. In this study, we investigate how it could affect an iconic forest species-Bertholletia excelsa-(the Brazil nut) which has values in multiple dimensions in an Amazonian context. We used an ensemble from various distribution modeling methods designed for four different climate scenarios from CMIP6 by the end of the century. Then, we simulate how spatial dynamics under climate change, including explicitly dispersal events, can affect the persistence, colonization, and potential extinction of Bertholletia excelsa in the future. Our results show that by the end of the century there would be a generalized loss of suitability on the Amazon biome, regardless of the climate scenario evaluated, which could promote a significant loss (up to 94%) of the area available for the species via extinction. Our results also show that, in the future, the species would colonize higher altitudes in search of favorable conditions for its survival. Finally, we detected that areas that had previously become unsuitable because of climate change would have favorable conditions by the end of the century. Such an outcome could be useful in fostering an active restoration agenda that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change on species in this study.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: © 2024 Anjos et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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