Atmospheric health burden across the century and the accelerating impact of temperature compared to pollution.

Autor: Pozzer A; Atmospheric Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitner weg, Mainz, 55128, Germany. andrea.pozzer@mpic.de.; Climate and Atmosphere Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, Nicosia, 2121, Cyprus. andrea.pozzer@mpic.de., Steffens B; Atmospheric Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitner weg, Mainz, 55128, Germany., Proestos Y; Climate and Atmosphere Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, Nicosia, 2121, Cyprus., Sciare J; Climate and Atmosphere Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, Nicosia, 2121, Cyprus., Akritidis D; Atmospheric Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitner weg, Mainz, 55128, Germany.; Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, 54124, Greece., Chowdhury S; CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, 0349, Norway., Burkart K; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, 15th Ave NE, 3980, Seattle, 98195, WA, USA., Bacer S; Atmospheric Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitner weg, Mainz, 55128, Germany.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2024 Oct 30; Vol. 15 (1), pp. 9379. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Oct 30.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53649-9
Abstrakt: Anthropogenic emissions alter atmospheric composition and therefore the climate, with implications for air pollution- and climate-related human health. Mortality attributable to air pollution and non-optimal temperature is a major concern, expected to shift under future climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. In this work, results from numerical simulations are used to assess future changes in mortality attributable to long-term exposure to both non-optimal temperature and air pollution simultaneously. Here we show that under a realistic scenario, end-of-century mortality could quadruple from present-day values to around 30 (95% confidence level:12-53) million people/year. While pollution-related mortality is projected to increase five-fold, temperature-related mortality will experience a seven-fold rise, making it a more important health risk factor than air pollution for at least 20% of the world's population. These findings highlight the urgent need to implement stronger climate policies to prevent future loss of life, outweighing the benefits of air quality improvements alone.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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