A conceptual health state diagram for modelling the transmission of a (re)emerging infectious respiratory disease in a human population.

Autor: Avramov M; Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON, K1S 5B6, Canada.; Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 960 Carling Avenue, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0C6, Canada.; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, Scientific Operations and Response, National Microbiology Laboratory Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Rue Sicotte, C.P. 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M2, Canada.; Groupe de Recherche en Épidémiologie des Zoonoses et Santé Publique, Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3190 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M1, Canada., Gabriele-Rivet V; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, Scientific Operations and Response, National Microbiology Laboratory Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Rue Sicotte, C.P. 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M2, Canada.; Groupe de Recherche en Épidémiologie des Zoonoses et Santé Publique, Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3190 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M1, Canada., Milwid RM; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, Scientific Operations and Response, National Microbiology Laboratory Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Rue Sicotte, C.P. 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M2, Canada.; Groupe de Recherche en Épidémiologie des Zoonoses et Santé Publique, Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3190 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M1, Canada., Ng V; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, Scientific Operations and Response, National Microbiology Laboratory Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Rue Sicotte, C.P. 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M2, Canada., Ogden NH; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, Scientific Operations and Response, National Microbiology Laboratory Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Rue Sicotte, C.P. 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M2, Canada.; Groupe de Recherche en Épidémiologie des Zoonoses et Santé Publique, Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3190 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M1, Canada., Hongoh V; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, Scientific Operations and Response, National Microbiology Laboratory Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Rue Sicotte, C.P. 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M2, Canada. valerie.hongoh@phac-aspc.gc.ca.; Groupe de Recherche en Épidémiologie des Zoonoses et Santé Publique, Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3190 Rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M1, Canada. valerie.hongoh@phac-aspc.gc.ca.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: BMC infectious diseases [BMC Infect Dis] 2024 Oct 24; Vol. 24 (1), pp. 1198. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Oct 24.
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-024-10017-8
Abstrakt: Mathematical modelling of (re)emerging infectious respiratory diseases among humans poses multiple challenges for modellers, which can arise as a result of limited data and surveillance, uncertainty in the natural history of the disease, as well as public health and individual responses to outbreaks. Here, we propose a COVID-19-inspired health state diagram (HSD) to serve as a foundational framework for conceptualising the modelling process for (re)emerging respiratory diseases, and public health responses, in the early stages of their emergence. The HSD aims to serve as a starting point for reflection on the structure and parameterisation of a transmission model to assess the impact of the (re)emerging disease and the capacity of public health interventions to control transmission. We also explore the adaptability of the HSD to different (re)emerging diseases using the characteristics of three respiratory diseases of historical public health importance. We outline key questions to contemplate when applying and adapting this HSD to (re)emerging infectious diseases and provide reflections on adapting the framework for public health-related interventions.
(© 2024. Crown.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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