Reducing uncertainties of climate projections on solar energy resources in Brazil.

Autor: de Lima FJL; Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities, Brazilian Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, 12227-010, Brazil.; Institute of Marine Science, Federal University of São Paulo - campus Baixada Santista, Santos, SP, 11070-102, Brazil., Gonçalves AR; Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities, Brazilian Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, 12227-010, Brazil., Costa RS; Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities, Brazilian Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, 12227-010, Brazil., Pes MP; Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities, Brazilian Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, 12227-010, Brazil.; Institute of Marine Science, Federal University of São Paulo - campus Baixada Santista, Santos, SP, 11070-102, Brazil., Dos Santos APP; Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities, Brazilian Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, 12227-010, Brazil., Orsini JAM; National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, São José dos Campos, 12247-016, Brazil.; Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, UNESP/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil.; Graduate School of International Studies, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea., Pereira EB; Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities, Brazilian Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, 12227-010, Brazil., Martins FR; Institute of Marine Science, Federal University of São Paulo - campus Baixada Santista, Santos, SP, 11070-102, Brazil. fernando.martins@unifesp.br.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2024 Oct 21; Vol. 14 (1), pp. 23586. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Oct 21.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-73769-y
Abstrakt: The share of solar power in Brazil's electrical grid has rapidly increased, relieving GHG emissions and diversifying energy sources for greater energy security. Besides that, solar resource is susceptible to climate change, adding uncertainty to electrical grid resilience. This study uses satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the performance of CMIP6 models in replicating and predicting surface solar irradiance (SSR) in Brazil. The results from the most reliable models indicate an increase in SSR by 2% to 8% in most regions, with a decrease of around 3% in the South. These findings highlight the potential for increased photovoltaic (PV) yield if backed by supportive public policies while underlining the importance of uncertainty assessment of climate models.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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