The future of algal blooms in lakes globally is in our hands.

Autor: Tigli M; UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Penicuik, United Kingdom; Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: madtig@ceh.ac.uk., Bak MP; Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: mirjam.bak@wur.nl., Janse JH; Netherlands Institute of Ecology NIOO-KNAW, P.O. Box 50, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands., Strokal M; Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, the Netherlands., Janssen ABG; Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Water research [Water Res] 2025 Jan 01; Vol. 268 (Pt A), pp. 122533. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Sep 29.
DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2024.122533
Abstrakt: Lakes are fundamental to society and nature, yet they are currently exposed to excessive nutrients and climate change, resulting in algal blooms. In the future, this may change, but how and where still needs more scientific attention. Here, we explore future trends in algal blooms in lakes globally for >3500 'representative lakes' for the year 2050, considering the attribution of both nutrient and climate factors. We soft-coupled a process-based lake ecosystem model (PCLake+) with a watershed nutrient model (MARINA-Multi) to assess trends in algal blooms in terms of the Trophic State Index for chlorophyll-a (TSI-Chla). Globally between 2010 and 2050, we show a rising trend in algal blooms under fossil-fuelled development (TSI-Chla increase in 91 % of lakes) and a declining trend under sustainable development (TSI-Chla decrease in 63 % of lakes). These changes are significantly attributed to nutrients. While not always significant, climate change attributions point to being unfavourable for lakes in 2050, exacerbating lake water quality. Our study stresses prioritising responsible nutrient and climate management on policy agendas. This implies that the future of algal blooms in lakes is in our hands.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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