Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis.

Autor:	He C; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany cheng.he@helmholtz-munich.de., Breitner-Busch S; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Medical Faculty, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany., Huber V; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Medical Faculty, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany., Chen K; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA., Zhang S; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA., Gasparrini A; Environment and Health Modelling Lab, Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Bell M; School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.; School of Health Policy and Management, College of Health Sciences, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea., Kan H; Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China., Royé D; Climate Research Foundation, CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain., Armstrong B; Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Schwartz J; Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA., Sera F; Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications 'G Parenti,' University of Florence, Florence, Italy., Vicedo-Cabrera AM; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland., Honda Y; Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan., Jaakkola JJK; Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland., Ryti N; Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland., Kyselý J; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic., Guo Y; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Tong S; National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia., de'Donato F; Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, ASL ROMA 1, Rome, Italy., Michelozzi P; Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, ASL ROMA 1, Rome, Italy., Coelho MSZS; Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil., Saldiva PHN; INSPER, Sao Paulo, Brazil., Lavigne E; School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.; Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada., Orru H; Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia., Indermitte E; Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia., Pascal M; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France., Goodman P; Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland., Zeka A; Institute for Global Health, University College London, UK., Kim Y; Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan., Diaz MH; Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico., Arellano EEF; Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico., Overcenco A; National Agency for Public Health of Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova., Klompmaker J; National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands., Rao S; Norwegian institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway., Palomares AD; Norwegian institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway., Carrasco G; Institute of Tropical Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.; Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA., Seposo X; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan., Pereira da Silva SDN; National Institute of Health Dr Ricardo Jorge, Portugal., Madureira J; National Institute of Health Dr Ricardo Jorge, Portugal.; EPIUnit - Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal.; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Pública (ITR), Porto, Portugal., Holobaca IH; Faculty of Geography, Babeș-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania., Scovronick N; Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA., Acquaotta F; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy., Kim H; Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea., Lee W; School of Biomedical Convergence Engineering, College of Information and Biomedical Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, Republic of Korea., Hashizume M; Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan., Tobias A; Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain.; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan., Íñiguez C; Department of Statistics and Computational Research, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain.; Ciberesp, Madrid, Spain., Forsberg B; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umea University, Umea, Sweden., Ragettli MS; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland.; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland., Guo YL; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University (NTU) College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.; National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan.; Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, NTU College of Public Health, Taipei, Taiwan., Pan SC; National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan., Osorio S; Department of Environmental Health, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil., Li S; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Zanobetti A; Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA., Dang TN; Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam., Van Dung D; Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam., Schneider A; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	BMJ (Clinical research ed.) [BMJ] 2024 Oct 09; Vol. 387, pp. e080944. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Oct 09.
DOI:	10.1136/bmj-2024-080944
Abstrakt:	Objective: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Design: Two stage time series analysis. Setting: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. Population: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths from 1980 to 2020. Main Outcome Measure: Association between daily mortality and rainfall events with return periods (the expected average time between occurrences of an extreme event of a certain magnitude) of one year, two years, and five years, with a 14 day lag period. A continuous relative intensity index was used to generate intensity-response curves to estimate mortality risks at a global scale. Results: During the study period, a total of 50 913 rainfall events with a one year return period, 8362 events with a two year return period, and 3301 events with a five year return period were identified. A day of extreme rainfall with a five year return period was significantly associated with increased daily all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, with cumulative relative risks across 0-14 lag days of 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.11), 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08), and 1.29 (1.19 to 1.39), respectively. Rainfall events with a two year return period were associated with respiratory mortality only, whereas no significant associations were found for events with a one year return period. Non-linear analysis revealed protective effects (relative risk <1) with moderate-heavy rainfall events, shifting to adverse effects (relative risk >1) with extreme intensities. Additionally, mortality risks from extreme rainfall events appeared to be modified by climate type, baseline variability in rainfall, and vegetation coverage, whereas the moderating effects of population density and income level were not significant. Locations with lower variability of baseline rainfall or scarce vegetation coverage showed higher risks. Conclusion: Daily rainfall intensity is associated with varying health effects, with extreme events linked to an increasing relative risk for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. The observed associations varied with local climate and urban infrastructure. Competing Interests: Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/disclosure-of-interest/ and declare: Support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation no financial relationships with any organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work. (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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