Predicting herd immunity achievement: a time-series analysis of vaccination and fatality rates using 1,075 days of COVID-19 data.

Autor:	Hon BYC; Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, Hong Kong SAR, China.; Department of Psychology, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China., Chan J; King George V School, Ho Man Tin, Hong Kong SAR, China., Ng KS; Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong SAR, China., Lam SC; School of Nursing, Tung Wah College, Ho Man Tin, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Frontiers in public health [Front Public Health] 2024 Sep 20; Vol. 12, pp. 1403163. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Sep 20 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI:	10.3389/fpubh.2024.1403163
Abstrakt:	Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic, driven by SARS-CoV-2, has made vaccination a critical strategy for global control. However, vaccine hesitancy, particularly among certain age groups, remains a significant barrier to achieving herd immunity. Methods: This study uses Poisson regression and ARIMA time-series modeling to identify factors contributing to vaccine hesitancy, understand age-specific vaccination preferences, and assess the impact of bivalent vaccines on reducing hesitancy and fatality rates. It also predicts the time required to achieve herd immunity by analyzing factors such as vaccine dosing intervals, age-specific preferences, and changes in fatality rates. Results: The study finds that individuals recovering from COVID-19 often delay vaccination due to perceived immunity. There is a preference for combining BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccines. The BNT162b2 bivalent vaccine has significantly reduced vaccine hesitancy and is linked with lower fatality rates, particularly in those aged 80 and above. However, it tends to induce more severe side effects compared to Sinovac. Vaccine hesitancy is most prevalent among the youngest (0-11) and oldest (80+) age groups, posing a challenge to reaching 90% vaccination coverage. Conclusion: Vaccine hesitancy is a major obstacle to herd immunity. Effective strategies include creating urgency, offering incentives, and prioritizing vulnerable age groups. Despite these challenges, the government should have continued to encourage vaccinations while gradually lifting COVID-19 control measures, balancing public health safety with the return to normal life, as was observed in the transition period during the latter stages of the pandemic. Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. The author(s) declared that they were an editorial board member of Frontiers, at the time of submission. This had no impact on the peer review process and the final decision. (Copyright © 2024 Hon, Chan, Ng and Lam.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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