Viral genetics and transmission dynamics in the second wave of mpox outbreak in Portugal and forecasting public health scenarios.

Autor: Cordeiro R; Emergency Response and Biopreparedness Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal.; Institute of Environmental Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal., Caetano CP; Department of Epidemiology, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal., Sobral D; Genomics and Bioinformatics Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal., Ferreira R; Genomics and Bioinformatics Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal., Coelho L; Genomics and Bioinformatics Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal., Pelerito A; Emergency Response and Biopreparedness Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal.; Institute of Environmental Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal., de Carvalho IL; Emergency Response and Biopreparedness Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal.; Institute of Environmental Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal., Namorado S; Department of Epidemiology, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal., Loyens DB; Department of Epidemiology, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal., Mexia R; Department of Epidemiology, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal., Fernandes C; Serviço de Dermatovenereologia, Consulta de DST, Unidade Local de Saúde de São José, Lisbon, Portugal., Neves JM; Serviço de Dermatovenereologia, Consulta de DST, Unidade Local de Saúde de São José, Lisbon, Portugal., João AL; Serviço de Dermatovenereologia, Consulta de DST, Unidade Local de Saúde de São José, Lisbon, Portugal., Rocha M; GAT - Grupo de Ativistas em Tratamentos, GAT-CheckpointLX, Lisbon, Portugal., Duque LM; GAT - Grupo de Ativistas em Tratamentos, GAT-CheckpointLX, Lisbon, Portugal.; Serviço de Infeccologia, Hospital Garcia de Orta, Almada, Portugal., Correia I; GAT - Grupo de Ativistas em Tratamentos, GAT-Intendente, Lisbon, Portugal., Baptista T; GAT - Grupo de Ativistas em Tratamentos, GAT-Intendente, Lisbon, Portugal., Brazão C; Dermatology Department, Unidade Local de Saúde de Santa Maria, Lisbon, Portugal., Sousa D; Dermatology Department, Unidade Local de Saúde de Santa Maria, Lisbon, Portugal., Filipe P; Dermatology Department, Unidade Local de Saúde de Santa Maria, Lisbon, Portugal.; Dermatology Research Unit (PFilipe Lab), Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.; Dermatology University Clinic, Faculty of Medicine, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal., Alpalhão M; Dermatology Department, Unidade Local de Saúde de Santa Maria, Lisbon, Portugal.; Dermatology Research Unit (PFilipe Lab), Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.; Dermatology University Clinic, Faculty of Medicine, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal., Maltez F; Institute of Environmental Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.; Serviço de Doenças Infeciosas, Hospital de Curry Cabral, Unidade Local de Saúde de São José, Lisbon, Portugal., Póvoas D; Serviço de Doenças Infeciosas, Hospital de Curry Cabral, Unidade Local de Saúde de São José, Lisbon, Portugal.; Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, Oeiras, Portugal., Pinto R; Serviço de Doenças Infeciosas, Hospital de Curry Cabral, Unidade Local de Saúde de São José, Lisbon, Portugal., Caria J; Serviço de Doenças Infeciosas, Hospital de Curry Cabral, Unidade Local de Saúde de São José, Lisbon, Portugal., Patrocínio de Jesus R; Serviço de Infeciologia, Hospital Professor Doutor Fernando Fonseca, Unidade Local de Saúde Amadora/Sintra, Amadora, Portugal., Pacheco P; Serviço de Infeciologia, Hospital Professor Doutor Fernando Fonseca, Unidade Local de Saúde Amadora/Sintra, Amadora, Portugal., Peruzzu F; Serviço de Infeciologia, Hospital Professor Doutor Fernando Fonseca, Unidade Local de Saúde Amadora/Sintra, Amadora, Portugal., Méndez J; Serviço de Doenças Infecciosas, Centro Hospitalar Universitário de Santo António, Porto, Portugal., Ferreira L; Serviço de Doenças Infecciosas, Centro Hospitalar Universitário de Santo António, Porto, Portugal., Mansinho K; Serviço de Doenças Infecciosas e Medicina Tropical, Hospital de Egas Moniz, Unidade Local de Saúde de Lisboa Ocidental, Lisbon, Portugal., Alves JV; Serviço de Doenças Infecciosas e Medicina Tropical, Hospital de Egas Moniz, Unidade Local de Saúde de Lisboa Ocidental, Lisbon, Portugal., Vasconcelos J; Emergency Response and Biopreparedness Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal., Domingos J; Serviço de Doenças Infecciosas e Medicina Tropical, Hospital de Egas Moniz, Unidade Local de Saúde de Lisboa Ocidental, Lisbon, Portugal., Casanova S; Serviço de Doenças Infecciosas e Medicina Tropical, Hospital de Egas Moniz, Unidade Local de Saúde de Lisboa Ocidental, Lisbon, Portugal., Duarte F; Serviço de Doenças Infeciosas, Hospital Pedro Hispano, Unidade Local de Saúde de Matosinhos, Matosinhos, Portugal., Gonçalves MJ; Serviço de Doenças Infeciosas, Hospital Pedro Hispano, Unidade Local de Saúde de Matosinhos, Matosinhos, Portugal., Salvador MB; Unidade de Doenças Sexualmente Transmissíveis, Unidade de Cuidados de Saúde Personalizados da Lapa, Unidade Local de Saúde de São José, Lisbon, Portugal., Guimarães MA; PPCIRA, Unidade de Tratamento de Imunodeficiência, Hospital de Cascais, Lisboa, Portugal., Martins S; UL-PPCIRA, Unidade Local de Saúde Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, Portugal., Oliveira MS; Serviço de Patologia Clínica, Unidade Local de Saúde do Tâmega e Sousa, Penafiel, Portugal., Santos D; Technology and Innovation Unit, Department of Human Genetics, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal., Vieira L; Technology and Innovation Unit, Department of Human Genetics, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal., Núncio MS; Emergency Response and Biopreparedness Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal.; Institute of Environmental Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal., Borges V; Genomics and Bioinformatics Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal., Gomes JP; Genomics and Bioinformatics Unit, Department of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal.; Veterinary and Animal Research Centre (CECAV), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Lusófona University, Lisbon, Portugal.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Emerging microbes & infections [Emerg Microbes Infect] 2024 Dec; Vol. 13 (1), pp. 2412635. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Oct 11.
DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2024.2412635
Abstrakt: In 2023, a second wave of the global mpox epidemic, which is mainly affecting men who have sex with men (MSM), was observed in some countries. Herein, we benefited from a large viral sequence sampling (76/121; 63%) and vast epidemiological data to characterise the re-emergence and circulation of the Monkeypox virus (MPXV) in Portugal during 2023. We also modelled transmission and forecasted public health scenarios through a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model. Our results suggest that the 2023 mpox wave in Portugal resulted from limited introduction(s) of MPXV belonging to C.1.1 sublineage, hypothetically from Asia, followed by sustained viral transmission and potential exportation to other countries. We estimated that the contribution of the MSM high sexual activity group to mpox transmission was 120 (95% CrI: 30-3553) times higher than that of the low sexual activity group. However, among the high sexual activity group, vaccinated individuals likely contributed approximately eight times less [0.123 (95% CrI: 0.068-0.208)] than the unvaccinated ones. Vaccination was also linked to potential reduced disease severity, with a Mpox Severity Score of 6.0 in the vaccinated group compared to 7.0 in unvaccinated individuals. Scenario analysis indicated that transmission is highly sensitive to sexual behaviour, projecting that a slight increase in the MSM sub-population with high sexual activity can trigger new mpox waves. This study strongly supports that continued vaccination, targeted awareness among risk groups and routine genomic epidemiology is needed to anticipate and respond to novel MPXV threats (e.g. global dissemination of clade I viruses).
Databáze: MEDLINE