Public Mass Shootings: Counterfactual Trend Analysis of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban.

Autor:	Lundberg AL; Buehler Center for Health Policy & Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, 9-933 Rubloff Building, 420 E Superior St, Chicago, IL, 60611, United States, 1 312-503-4559., Fox JA; Criminology, Law and Public Policy, Northeastern University, New York, NY, United States., Mohammad H; Buehler Center for Health Policy & Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, 9-933 Rubloff Building, 420 E Superior St, Chicago, IL, 60611, United States, 1 312-503-4559., Mason M; Buehler Center for Health Policy & Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, 9-933 Rubloff Building, 420 E Superior St, Chicago, IL, 60611, United States, 1 312-503-4559., Salina D; Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States, United States., Victorson D; Medical Social Sciences, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States., Parra-Cardona R; Steve Hicks School of Social Work, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States., Post LA; Buehler Center for Health Policy & Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, 9-933 Rubloff Building, 420 E Superior St, Chicago, IL, 60611, United States, 1 312-503-4559.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	JMIR public health and surveillance [JMIR Public Health Surveill] 2024 Sep 20; Vol. 10, pp. e62952. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Sep 20.
DOI:	10.2196/62952
Abstrakt:	Background: Assault weapon and large-capacity magazine bans are potential tools for policy makers to prevent public mass shootings. However, the efficacy of these bans is a continual source of debate. In an earlier study, we estimated the impact of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) on the number of public mass shooting events in the United States. This study provides an updated assessment with 3 additional years of firearm surveillance data to characterize the longer-term effects. Objective: This study aims to estimate the impact of the FAWB on trends in public mass shootings from 1966 to 2022. Methods: We used linear regression to estimate the impact of the FAWB on the 4-year simple moving average of annual public mass shootings, defined by events with 4 or more deaths in 24 hours, not including the perpetrator. The study period spans 1966 to 2022. The model includes indicator variables for both the FAWB period (1995-2004) and the period after its removal (2005-2022). These indicators were interacted with a linear time trend. Estimates were controlled for the national homicide rate. After estimation, the model provided counterfactual estimates of public mass shootings if the FAWB was never imposed and if the FAWB remained in place. Results: The overall upward trajectory in the number of public mass shootings substantially fell while the FAWB was in place. These trends are specific to events in which the perpetrator used an assault weapon or large-capacity magazine. Point estimates suggest the FAWB prevented up to 5 public mass shootings while the ban was active. A continuation of the FAWB and large-capacity magazine ban would have prevented up to 38 public mass shootings, but the CIs become wider as time moves further away from the period of the FAWB. Conclusions: The FAWB, which included a ban on large-capacity magazines, was associated with fewer public mass shooting events, fatalities, and nonfatal gun injuries. Gun control legislation is an important public health tool in the prevention of public mass shootings. (© Alex Lars Lundberg, James Alan Fox, Hassan Mohammad, Maryann Mason, Doreen Salina, David Victorson, Ruben Parra-Cardona, Lori Ann Post. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org).)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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