Evaluation of risk prediction scores for adults hospitalized with COVID-19 in a highly-vaccinated population, Aotearoa New Zealand 2022.

Autor:	Maze MJ; Department of Medicine, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand., Williman J; Department of Population Health, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand., Anstey R; Respiratory Department, Te Whatu Ora Waikato, New Zealand., Best E; Department of Paediatrics, University of Auckland, New Zealand., Bhally H; Infectious Diseases Department, Te Whatu Ora Waitematā, New Zealand., Bryce A; Infectious Diseases Department, Te Whatu Ora Waitematā, New Zealand., Chang CL; Respiratory Department, Te Whatu Ora Waikato, New Zealand., Chen K; Infectious Diseases Department, Te Whatu Ora Hauora a Toi Bay of Plenty, New Zealand., Dummer J; Department of Medicine, University of Otago, New Zealand., Epton M; Respiratory Department, Te Whatu Ora Waitaha Canterbury, New Zealand., Good WR; Respiratory Department, Te Whatu Ora Counties Manukau, New Zealand., Goodson J; Infectious Diseases Department, Te Whatu Ora Hauora a Toi Bay of Plenty, New Zealand., Grey C; Department of General Practice and Primary Healthcare, University of Auckland, New Zealand., Grimwade K; Infectious Diseases Department, Te Whatu Ora Hauora a Toi Bay of Plenty, New Zealand., Hancox RJ; Infectious Diseases Department, Te Whatu Ora Waitematā, New Zealand.; Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, University of Otago, New Zealand., Hassan RZ; Infectious Diseases Department, Te Whatu Ora Waitematā, New Zealand., Hills T; Department of Infectious Diseases, Te Whatu Ora Auckland, New Zealand.; Medical Research Institute of New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand., Hotu S; Respiratory Medicine Department, Te Whatu Ora Auckland, New Zealand., McArthur C; Department of Critical Care Medicine, Te Whatu Ora Auckland, New Zealand., Morpeth S; Department of Infectious Diseases, Te Whatu Ora Counties Manukau, New Zealand., Murdoch DR; Department of Pathology and Biomedical Science, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand., Pease FE; Respiratory Department, Te Whatu Ora Waikato, New Zealand., Pylypchuk R; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Auckland, New Zealand., Raymond N; Infection Service, Te Whatu Ora Capital, Coast and Hutt Valley, New Zealand., Ritchie S; Department of Infectious Diseases, Te Whatu Ora Auckland, New Zealand., Ryan D; Pacific Perspectives, Wellington, New Zealand., Selak V; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Auckland, New Zealand., Storer M; Respiratory Department, Te Whatu Ora Waitaha Canterbury, New Zealand., Walls T; Department of Paediatrics, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand., Webb R; Respiratory Department, Te Whatu Ora Waikato, New Zealand., Wong C; Respiratory Department, Te Whatu Ora Counties Manukau, New Zealand.; Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, New Zealand., Wright K; Te Kupenga Hauora Māori, University of Auckland, New Zealand.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	IJID regions [IJID Reg] 2024 Aug 13; Vol. 12, pp. 100424. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Aug 13 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI:	10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100424
Abstrakt:	Objectives: COVID-19 severity prediction scores need further validation due to evolving COVID-19 illness. We evaluated existing COVID-19 risk prediction scores in Aotearoa New Zealand, including for Māori and Pacific peoples who have been inequitably affected by COVID-19. Methods: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 from January to May 2022, including all Māori and Pacific patients, and every second non-Māori, non-Pacific (NMNP) patient to achieve equal analytic power by ethnic grouping. We assessed the accuracy of existing severity scores (4C Mortality, CURB-65, PRIEST, and VACO) to predict death in the hospital or within 28 days. Results: Of 2319 patients, 582 (25.1%) identified as Māori, 914 (39.4%) as Pacific, and 862 (37.2%) as NMNP. There were 146 (6.3%, 95% confidence interval 5.4-7.4%) deaths, with a predicted probability of death higher than observed mortality for VACO (10.4%), modified PRIEST (15.1%) and 4C mortality (15.5%) scores, but lower for CURB-65 (4.5%). C-statistics (95% CI) of severity scores were: 4C mortality: Māori 0.82 (0.75, 0.88), Pacific 0.87 (0.83, 0.90), NMNP 0.90 (0.86, 0.93); CURB-65: Māori 0.83 (0.69, 0.92), Pacific 0.87 (0.82, 0.91), NMNP 0.86 (0.80, 0.91); modified PRIEST: Māori 0.85 (0.79, 0.90), Pacific 0.81 (0.76, 0.86), NMNP 0.83 (0.78, 0.87); and VACO: Māori 0.79 (0.75, 0.83), Pacific 0.71 (0.58, 0.82), NMNP 0.78 (0.73, 0.83). Conclusions: Following re-calibration, existing risk prediction scores accurately predicted mortality. Competing Interests: The authors have no competing interest to declare. (© 2024 The Authors.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
Externí odkaz:	Zobrazit plný text záznamu