Bayesian identification and estimation of radon-related increased hazard rates of cancer death in the updated French cohort of uranium miners (1946-2014).

Autor: Fendler J; PSE-SANTE/SESANE/LEPID, Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Fontenay-Aux-Roses, France. julie.fendler@irsn.fr., Guihenneuc C; BioSTM-UR 7537, Univ. Paris Cité, Paris, France., Ancelet S; PSE-SANTE/SESANE/LEPID, Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Fontenay-Aux-Roses, France.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: International archives of occupational and environmental health [Int Arch Occup Environ Health] 2024 Nov; Vol. 97 (9), pp. 941-958. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Sep 13.
DOI: 10.1007/s00420-024-02098-4
Abstrakt: Objective: A recent update of the French cohort of uranium miners added seven years of follow-up data. We use these new data to look for new possible radon-related increased risks and refine the estimation of the potential association between cumulative radon exposure and four cancer sites: lung cancer, kidney cancer, brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer and leukemia (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia, which is not radiation-induced).
Methods: Several parametric survival models are proposed, fitted and compared under the Bayesian paradigm, to perform new and original exposure-risk analyses. In line with recent UNSCEAR recommendations, we consider time-related effect modifiers and exposure rate as potential effect modifying factors. We use Bayesian model selection criteria to identify radon-related increased hazard rates.
Results: Under the assumption of a linear exposure-risk relationship, we found a substantial evidence for a strictly positive effect of cumulative radon exposure on the hazard rate of death by lung cancer among French uranium miners. Given the current available data under the assumptions of a linear or log-linear exposure-risk relationship, it is not possible to conclude in favour of the absence or the existence of a strictly positive effect of chronic exposure to radon on the hazard rate of death by kidney cancer. Regarding death by brain and CNS cancer, there is a substantial evidence for the absence of radon-related effect. Finally, under the assumption of a log-linear exposure-risk relationship, a small positive radon-related effect appears when looking at the risk of death by leukemia (excluding CLL).
Conclusion: This study investigates the existence of radon-related increased risk of death by lung cancer, kidney cancer, brain and CNS cancer and leukemia under a Bayesian framework and assumptions of linear and log-linear exposure-risk relationships. If there is no doubt in the interpretation of the results for lung cancer and brain and CNS cancer, the conclusion is less clear-cut in the case of kidney cancer and leukemia (excluding CLL). A future update of the French cohort, increasing the follow-up time for miners, may help to reach a clearer conclusion for these two cancer sites.
Competing Interests: Declarations Conflict of interest All the authors declare no Conflict of interest. Ethics approval and consent to participate This study is approved by the Advisory Committee on Information Processing in Health Research (CCTIRS) of the Ministry of Higher Education and Research (protocol code 11.374, approved 16 June 2011) and by the French Data Protection Authority (Commission Nationale de l’Informatique et des Libertés, CNIL) (authorization DR-2012-611, 16 December 2012). Consent for publication Not applicable.
(© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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