Effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and seasonal weather conditions on Aedes aegypti infestation in the State of São Paulo (Brazil): A Bayesian spatio-temporal study.

Autor: Pirani M; MRC Centre for Environment & Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom., Lorenz C; Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil., de Azevedo TS; Health Department of the Municipality of Santa Bárbara d'Oeste, São Paulo, Brazil., Barbosa GL; Pasteur Institute, Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo, Brazil., Blangiardo M; MRC Centre for Environment & Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom., Chiaravalloti-Neto F; Laboratory of Spatial Analysis in Health, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PLoS neglected tropical diseases [PLoS Negl Trop Dis] 2024 Sep 12; Vol. 18 (9), pp. e0012397. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Sep 12 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012397
Abstrakt: Background: Seasonal fluctuations in weather are recognized as factors that affect both Aedes (Ae.) aegypti mosquitoes and the diseases they carry, such as dengue fever. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is widely regarded as one of the most impactful atmospheric phenomena on Earth, characterized by the interplay of shifting ocean temperatures, trade wind intensity, and atmospheric pressure, resulting in extensive alterations in climate conditions. In this study, we investigate the influence of ENSO and local weather conditions on the spatio-temporal variability of Ae. aegypti infestation index.
Methods: We collected seasonal entomological survey data of immature forms of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes (Breteau index), as well as data on temperature, rainfall and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for the period 2008-2018 over the 645 municipalities of the subtropical State of São Paulo (Brazil). We grounded our analytical approach on a Bayesian framework and we used a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to study the relationship between ENSO tracked by ONI, seasonal weather fluctuations and the larval index, while adjusting for population density and wealth inequalities.
Results: Our results showed a relevant positive effect for El Niño on the Ae. aegypti larval index. In particular, we found that the number of positive containers would be expected to increase by 1.30-unit (95% Credible Intervals (CI): 1.23 to 1.37) with El Niño events (i.e., ≥ 1°C, moderate to strong) respect to neutral (and weak) events. We also found that seasonal rainfall exceeding 153.12 mm appears to have a notable impact on vector index, leading potentially to the accumulation of ample water in outdoor discarded receptacles, supporting the aquatic phase of mosquito development. Additionally, seasonal temperature above 23.30°C was found positively associated to the larval index. Although the State of São Paulo as a whole has characteristics favourable to proliferation of the vector, there were specific areas with a greater tendency for mosquito infestation, since the most vulnerable areas are predominantly situated in the central and northern regions of the state, with hot spots of abundance in the south, especially during El Niño events. Our findings also indicate that social disparities present in the municipalities contributes to Ae. aegypti proliferation.
Conclusions: Considering the anticipated rise in both the frequency and intensity of El Niño events in the forthcoming decades as a consequence of climate change, the urgency to enhance our ability to track and diminish arbovirus outbreaks is crucial.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: © 2024 Pirani et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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