Expert judgement reveals current and emerging UK climate-mortality burden.

Autor:	Mitchell D; Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. Electronic address: d.m.mitchell@bristol.ac.uk., Lo YTE; Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK., Ball E; Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK., Godwin JL; Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK., Andrews O; Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, UK., Barciela R; Met Office, Exeter, Devon, UK., Ford LB; Priestley Centre for Climate Change, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK; UK Health Security Agency, Canary Wharf, London, UK., Di Napoli C; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK., Ebi KL; Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Fučkar NS; Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain., Gasparrini A; Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Golding B; Met Office, Exeter, Devon, UK., Gregson CL; Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK., Griffith GJ; Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK., Khalid S; Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Robinson C; Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK., Schmidt DN; Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK., Simpson CH; Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK., Sparks RSJ; Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK., Walker JG; Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	The Lancet. Planetary health [Lancet Planet Health] 2024 Sep; Vol. 8 (9), pp. e684-e694.
DOI:	10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00175-X
Abstrakt:	Weather and climate patterns play an intrinsic role in societal health, yet a comprehensive synthesis of specific hazard-mortality causes does not currently exist. Country-level health burdens are thus highly uncertain, but harnessing collective expert knowledge can reduce this uncertainty, and help assess diverse mortality causes beyond what is explicitly quantified. Here, surveying 30 experts, we provide the first structured expert judgement of how weather and climate directly impact mortality, using the UK as an example. Current weather-related mortality is dominated by short-term exposure to hot and cold temperatures leading to cardiovascular and respiratory failure. We find additional underappreciated health outcomes, especially related to long-exposure hazards, including heat-related renal disease, cold-related musculoskeletal health, and infectious diseases from compound hazards. We show potential future worsening of cause-specific mortality, including mental health from flooding or heat, and changes in infectious diseases. Ultimately, this work could serve to develop an expert-based understanding of the climate-related health burden in other countries. Competing Interests: Declaration of interests YTEL was funded by a University of Bristol fellowship in Climate and Health. EB was funded by Policy Bristol. CR is funded by a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/V021672). NSF received support of H2020 MSCA IF (grant ID 846824). AG was supported by the Medical Research Council-UK (MR/V034162/1). All other authors declare no competing interests. (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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