The Paradox of Predictability Provides a Bridge Between Micro- and Macroevolution.

Autor:	Tsuboi M; Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden., Sztepanacz J; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Canada., De Lisle S; Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.; Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, Karlstad University, Karlstad, Sweden., Voje KL; Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway., Grabowski M; Research Centre for Evolutionary Anthropology and Palaeoecology, School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Liverpool John Moores University, UK., Hopkins MJ; Division of Paleontology (Invertebrates), American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, USA., Porto A; Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA., Balk M; Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway., Pontarp M; Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden., Rossoni D; Department of Biological Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA., Hildesheim LS; Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden., Horta-Lacueva QJ; Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden., Hohmann N; Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.; Institute of Evolutionary Biology, Biological and Chemical Research Centre, Faculty of Biology, University of Warsaw., Holstad A; Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway., Lürig M; Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden., Milocco L; Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden., Nilén S; Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden., Passarotto A; Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.; Facultad de Biología, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain., Svensson EI; Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden., Villegas C; Centro de Filosofia das Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisboa, Portugal., Winslott E; Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden., Liow LH; Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.; Centre for Planetary Habitability, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway., Hunt G; Department of Paleobiology, Smithsonian Institution, National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC, USA., Love AC; Department of Philosophy and Minnesota Center for Philosophy of Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA., Houle D; Department of Biological Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Journal of evolutionary biology [J Evol Biol] 2024 Aug 29. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Aug 29.
DOI:	10.1093/jeb/voae103
Abstrakt:	The relationship between the evolutionary dynamics observed in contemporary populations (microevolution) and evolution on timescales of millions of years (macroevolution) has been a topic of considerable debate. Historically, this debate centers on inconsistencies between microevolutionary processes and macroevolutionary patterns. Here, we characterize a striking exception: emerging evidence indicates that standing variation in contemporary populations and macroevolutionary rates of phenotypic divergence are often positively correlated. This apparent consistency between micro- and macroevolution is paradoxical because it contradicts our previous understanding of phenotypic evolution and is so far unexplained. Here, we explore the prospects for bridging evolutionary timescales through an examination of this "paradox of predictability." We begin by explaining why the divergence-variance correlation is a paradox, followed by data analysis to show that the correlation is a general phenomenon across a broad range of temporal scales, from a few generations to tens of millions of years. Then we review complementary approaches from quantitative-genetics, comparative morphology, evo-devo, and paleontology to argue that they can help to address the paradox from the shared vantage point of recent work on evolvability. In conclusion, we recommend a methodological orientation that combines different kinds of short-term and long-term data using multiple analytical frameworks in an interdisciplinary research program. Such a program will increase our general understanding about how evolution works within and across timescales. (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Evolutionary Biology.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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