Modelling the effectiveness of an isolation strategy for managing mpox outbreaks with variable infectiousness profiles.

Autor: Jeong YD; Interdisciplinary Biology Laboratory (iBLab), Division of Natural Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.; Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, Busan, 46241, South Korea., Hart WS; Interdisciplinary Biology Laboratory (iBLab), Division of Natural Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.; Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK., Thompson RN; Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK., Ishikane M; Disease Control and Prevention Centre, National Centre for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan., Nishiyama T; Interdisciplinary Biology Laboratory (iBLab), Division of Natural Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan., Park H; Interdisciplinary Biology Laboratory (iBLab), Division of Natural Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan., Iwamoto N; Disease Control and Prevention Centre, National Centre for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan., Sakurai A; Disease Control and Prevention Centre, National Centre for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan., Suzuki M; Disease Control and Prevention Centre, National Centre for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan., Aihara K; International Research Center for Neurointelligence, The University of Tokyo Institutes for Advanced Study, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan., Watashi K; Research Center for Drug and Vaccine Development, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan., Op de Coul E; Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands., Ohmagari N; Disease Control and Prevention Centre, National Centre for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan., Wallinga J; Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.; Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center (LUMC), Leiden, The Netherlands., Iwami S; Interdisciplinary Biology Laboratory (iBLab), Division of Natural Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan. iwami.iblab@bio.nagoya-u.ac.jp.; International Research Center for Neurointelligence, The University of Tokyo Institutes for Advanced Study, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. iwami.iblab@bio.nagoya-u.ac.jp.; Institute of Mathematics for Industry, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan. iwami.iblab@bio.nagoya-u.ac.jp.; Institute for the Advanced Study of Human Biology (ASHBi), Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan. iwami.iblab@bio.nagoya-u.ac.jp.; Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Program (iTHEMS), RIKEN, Saitama, Japan. iwami.iblab@bio.nagoya-u.ac.jp.; NEXT-Ganken Program, Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research (JFCR), Tokyo, Japan. iwami.iblab@bio.nagoya-u.ac.jp.; Science Groove Inc., Fukuoka, Japan. iwami.iblab@bio.nagoya-u.ac.jp., Miura F; Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands. fuminari.miura@rivm.nl.; Center for Marine Environmental Studies (CMES), Ehime University, Matsuyama, Ehime, Japan. fuminari.miura@rivm.nl.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2024 Aug 26; Vol. 15 (1), pp. 7112. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Aug 26.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51143-w
Abstrakt: The global outbreak of mpox in 2022 and subsequent sporadic outbreaks in 2023 highlighted the importance of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as case isolation. Individual variations in viral shedding dynamics may lead to either premature ending of isolation for infectious individuals, or unnecessarily prolonged isolation for those who are no longer infectious. Here, we developed a modeling framework to characterize heterogeneous mpox infectiousness profiles - specifically, when infected individuals cease to be infectious - based on viral load data. We examined the potential effectiveness of three different isolation rules: a symptom-based rule (the current guideline in many countries) and rules permitting individuals to stop isolating after either a fixed duration or following tests that indicate that they are no longer likely to be infectious. Our analysis suggests that the duration of viral shedding ranges from 23 to 50 days between individuals. The risk of infected individuals ending isolation too early was estimated to be 8.8% (95% CI: 6.7-10.5) after symptom clearance and 5.4% (95% CI: 4.1-6.7) after 3 weeks of isolation. While these results suggest that the current standard practice for ending isolation is effective, we found that unnecessary isolation following the infectious period could be reduced by adopting a testing-based rule.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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