Predictive modeling of atmospheric nuclear fallout microphysics.

Autor: McGuffin DL; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. Electronic address: mcguffin1@llnl.gov., Lucas DD; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA., Balboni E; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA., Nasstrom JS; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA., Lundquist KA; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA., Knight KB; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2024 Nov 15; Vol. 951, pp. 175536. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Aug 21.
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175536
Abstrakt: The capability to predict size, composition, and transport of nuclear fallout enables public officials to determine immediate and prolonged guidance in the event of a nuclear incident. Predictive computer models of fallout can also provide useful insight for nuclear forensic response when detailed radiochemical processes can be reliably included. Current post-detonation nuclear fallout models prescribe particle size distributions empirically or semi-empirically, based on measurements across limited conditions pertaining to tests conducted primarily in Nevada and the Pacific. These empirical fallout relationships may be subject to large uncertainties in particle size and radionuclide activity distribution if used to extrapolate to other regions with different environmental conditions (e.g., urbanized areas). Replacing empirical relationships with physics-based microphysical process modeling can enable significant advances in the fidelity of predictive models simulating distributions of fallout across diverse environments. Particle microphysics describes the formation and evolution of fallout particles, as well as the interaction of radioactive material with entrained particles, which requires accounting for fundamental processes such as nucleation, condensation, and coagulation. The objective of this perspective article is to summarize computational techniques to simulate particle microphysical processes advancing the fidelity of predicting nuclear fallout. We review current empirical models for simulating post-detonation fallout and assess promising research directions moving towards physics-based predictive systems.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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